That Latino voters will play a pivotal role in the 2024 presidential election is no secret. These traditionally Democratic voters have been behaving more like contestable swing voters over the last two election cycles — less loyal to Democrats and more persuadable in down-ballot elections. If those contests have taught Republicans anything, it’s that their party and candidates have a prime opportunity this cycle to grow their support, if they start early and act smart.
Democrats still over-performed in competitive races during the 2022 midterms and continue to win the majority of Latino voters. But final results from last year’s contests have since confirmed that, since 2016, Republicans have made gains and held a higher share of Latino voters nationally than in the pre-Trump years.
Those GOP gains have been made even though Republicans don’t have the best reputation with these voters and haven’t made the smartest investments in outreach and turnout. And Republicans have a solid chance to win over even more Latinos next year, according to post-midterm polls and analyses of 2020 and 2022.
Those gains won’t materialize automatically. They will require hard work starting now — but it’s unclear whether the Republican presidential primary contenders realize that or have begun that labor.
Their work includes rehabilitating the brand of Republican politics and policy: potentially playing down hardline immigration politics, playing up messaging on economic opportunity, moderating on abortion, and turning the cultural fights over gender and sexuality into issues of parental rights. Practically, that means hiring staff that understands the Latino communities candidates are trying to win over, and developing plans for spending on Spanish-language ads.
It might seem early to begin to discuss this kind of general election strategy, given the campaigns’ attention on qualifying for primary debate stages, raising the funds to even make it to the first…
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