The U.S. government defaulting on its debt, which could become a reality as soon as June 1 without intervention, could send the typical cost of a mortgage soaring by 22%. Mortgage rates rising above 8% would likely overwhelm a small price dip to make affording a home an even steeper hill to climb and send home sales tumbling, according to a new Zillow® analysis.
To be sure, the U.S. has never before defaulted on its debt, and it is very unlikely that the U.S. will fail to pay its debts now. This analysis projects what might happen in the unlikely worst-case scenario of a prolonged default, and it is not a prediction that a default will occur.
“Home buyers and sellers finally have been adjusting to mortgage rates over 6% this spring, but a debt default could potentially raise borrowing costs even higher and send the market into a deep freeze,” said Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker. “Home values might not see a notable drop, but higher mortgage rates would severely impair affordability, for first-time buyers especially. It is critically important to find a solution and not put more strain on Americans who are striving to achieve their homeownership dreams.”
A debt default would almost certainly mean severe disruption for the economy, with the ripple effects taking their toll on the housing market. One highly likely consequence would be rising interest rates — including mortgage rates — as shaken confidence in Treasury bills being repaid means investors would require a greater return before purchasing them. Mortgage rates tend to follow Treasury rates and would be expected to rise as a result.
Home shoppers already are finding few options they can afford this spring, and it’s estimated that a mortgage would cost 22% more in September in the event of a debt default than it otherwise would. That’s on top of an 82% rise over the past two years.
A steep rise in mortgage rates — projected to peak at 8.4% in September in this scenario — would freeze…
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