Today, I want to examine a few stories that, right now, appear to be defeats and tell you how we look at these defeats beyond the failing grades we deserve — without extra credit that could save us, because this isn’t high school. We remonstrate, but we act and stubbornly refuse to accept defeat in the long term. Start with some of the challenges DIS YTD mountain Disney YTD performance We got started too early with Walt Disney (DIS) and we got too close to the company. We were led to believe by the highest of sources that former CEO Bob Chapek, so successful at theme parks, would be the ideal person to take care of creative talent and build out the Disney+ streaming service. But Chapek was a disaster and an incompetent, leading to the return of Bob Iger as CEO late last year. So why not bolt? Simple: there is no way this franchise could be worth so little given its intellectual property, its physical sites, and its its cruises and hotels. Not to mention, the possibility of the board ultimately bringing in a young CEO who understands how to motivate talent and fix linear television. I like the odds. EL YTD mountain Estee Lauder YTD performance We saw Estee Lauder ‘s (EL) stall-out coming, but we didn’t believe it would become the worst-performing stock in the S & P 500 that fateful reporting day earlier this month. I have had an excellent decade-long relationship with CEO Fabrizio Freda, and he had been such an able leader, until Covid-19. Since then he has been uneven. When China abandoned its Covid restrictions and reopened duty-free stores, Freda was assured big business was coming with a wave of travelers from the mainland. But that scenario ended up not panning out. Now, there is a ton of Estee Lauder in the big, bad channel of duty free, which assures us a terrible next quarter. So why keep it? Because sometimes there is nothing better than a well-warned terrible quarter. I think Freda will have something else that works that will blunt the loss of duty…
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