Former President Donald Trump predicted last week that May 11, the day that the Title 42 pandemic restriction ended at the U.S.-Mexico border, would be “a day of infamy” with “millions” of migrants arriving. Former Vice President Mike Pence, referring to the public health emergency order that allowed the U.S. to expel migrants more quickly without having to consider their asylum requests, tweeted, “A storm is coming with the end of Title 42.” Neither prediction sounded right to those of us at the Washington Office on Latin America who actually visit the migration route and talk to people coming to the United States.
My organization predicted before Title 42 ended that any post-May 11 increase in migrant arrivals would “be neither giant nor long-lasting.”
In fact, my organization predicted before Title 42 ended that any post-May 11 increase in migrant arrivals would “be neither giant nor long-lasting.” And, true to that prediction, at least in the first days after Title 42’s lifting, there was no increase at all. To the contrary: A top Homeland Security official told reporters on Monday that compared to the days before May 11, “we have seen a substantial decrease in unlawful crossings at the border and irregular migration, averaging less than half that many encounters.” We are hearing similar reports from colleagues who work with migrants at the border.
Though a short-term drop in migration was foreseeable, a 50% reduction is remarkably steep. Those reduced numbers, though, probably won’t last long: All the forces that cause so many people to migrate are still in place.
Essentially, migrants — and the network of smugglers along the route between countries of origin and the United States — are in “wait and see” mode. They are uncertain about what President Joe Biden’s administration’s tough-sounding new policies will mean for them. A new rule, called the “transit ban,” is making it much harder for people to apply for…
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