Mass layoffs across Big Tech continue to dominate headlines, and workers in information services are projected to be the most at risk of losing their jobs in the next few months, according to a new “job loss risk index” from The Conference Board, a think tank and business membership organization
Based on the current economy, the three sectors facing the highest layoff risks in the coming months include:
- Information services
- Transportation and warehousing
- Construction
The index calculates each industry’s layoff risk based on six factors, including: its exposure to labor shortages; sensitivity to monetary policy; job function and education levels required; the state of its pandemic recovery; longer-term trends in labor demand; and the age composition and experience levels of its workforce.
Information services jobs, ranging from software engineers to recruiters for tech talent, are most at-risk of layoffs in a potential recession because headcount grew so quickly during the pandemic, fueled by shifts in consumer behaviors that required businesses to move everything online, says Frank Steemers, a senior economist with The Conference Board.
High-growth tech companies are also more sensitive to interest rate hikes that have happened for the better part of a year now.
However, while tech layoffs are taking up headlines, Steemers says these workers are getting rehired quickly across other sectors like health care and business, so they’re not being captured by unemployment figures.
Jobs in transportation and warehousing, construction, repairs, personal and other services are at risk of being cut because customer demand for e-commerce has slowed now that buying and experiencing things in-person is back on the table. People are also shopping less due to high inflation, high interest rates on debt and high job insecurity with layoff headlines in the news.
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