Donald Trump is now in a stronger position to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination than he has been in months as his party rallies around him following his indictment by a New York grand jury on business fraud charges.
But actual results on the ground continue to suggest that the former president may not be good for the Republican brand among the general electorate.
On the day of Trump’s arraignment in Manhattan on Tuesday, Democratic-backed Janet Protasiewicz celebrated victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election as liberals won control of the high court in the ultimate swing state.
That result is just part of a larger story in which Democrats and Democratic-backed candidates across the nation have been performing better in elections this year than Joe Biden did in their states or districts in 2020. And it potentially portends well for Democrats’ 2024 fortunes.
The result in Wisconsin sums up the Republican problem. Biden won the state by less than a point in 2020, after Trump had carried it by a similar margin four years earlier. The Badger State is one of a handful that has voted for the winner in the last four presidential elections, and it is one of few that has a US senator of each party.
Protasiewicz’s 11-point winning margin over her Republican opponent is a relative blowout compared with Biden’s 2020 performance in Wisconsin.
We can also see the Democratic overperformance in Wisconsin in another Tuesday election, this one a state Senate election in the Milwaukee area. While not spoken about anywhere near as much as the state Supreme Court race, Republicans needed to hold the open seat to win a supermajority in the state Senate.
The Republican candidate did win, but only by 2 points. This marked a 3-point overperformance for the Democratic nominee as Biden lost the district by 5 points in 2020.
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