Donald Trump is the first former president to be indicted. Given that move by a New York grand jury and the other high-profile criminal cases involving Trump, you might think his political fortunes are endangered.
But many Republican officials seem hesitant to attack the former president (instead turning on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who brought the charges), and betting markets still favor Trump for the GOP nomination in 2024.
So what’s going on? We’re in an obviously unprecedented situation, and the political reality can change post-indictment.
Still, Republicans and bettors are likely reacting to three facts:
- Trump’s polling lead in the 2024 Republican primary has grown over the last month as an indictment loomed.
- Most Republicans think all the different Trump probes are motivated by politics.
- A majority of Trump supporters aren’t overly concerned about his electability among general election voters.
Recent polls from Fox News, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University have shown how Trump’s Republican primary prospects have improved. All had Trump leading by double digits in March, with his advantage over his nearest rival – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, an undeclared 2024 candidate – growing by 12 points since February.
According to the Quinnipiac poll, which was published this past week, just 18% of registered Republican voters thought the accusations against Trump in the alleged hush money scheme in New York were very or somewhat serious. A majority (53%) believed they were not serious at all.
The fact that the indictment is now a real (not just potential) occurrence could change some opinions, though perhaps not as many as you might think.
Most Republicans (and, in fact, a majority of all voters) in the same Quinnipiac poll didn’t believe the man…
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