Before heading to Waco, Texas, for the first rally of his 2024 campaign Saturday, former President Donald Trump spent more than a week signaling he thinks being indicted on falsifying records charges related to hush money payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels will be good for him politically. So much so that he reportedly wanted to be seen in handcuffs. But it’s not clear he’s right.
Trump’s indictment, which at this point appears to be delayed until at least next week, could strengthen support among the Republican base for his 2024 reelection campaign. But it could also turn off voters who have come to see Trump as a liability given his refusal to accept his 2020 election loss, the resulting fallout of the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the US Capitol, and the bevy of additional criminal and civil investigations he’s facing. Those include probes into his business dealings, interference in the 2020 election in Georgia, withholding of classified documents after he left office, and his role in inciting the insurrection, which could lead to additional indictments.
Even if an indictment earns him votes over his Republican Party challengers in the primary, it’s unclear whether the same would be true in the general election. The news has already splintered his own party, with some of his political opponents, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, invoking it in their lines of attack; others have rushed to the former president’s defense in the face of what they frame as a politically motivated case.
We spoke with pollsters and political strategists from both parties about what they think an indictment could mean in the months ahead.
The case that an indictment may help Trump
Robert Cahaly, senior strategist and pollster at the Trafalgar Group and former Republican political consultant:
With all the stuff that’s out there brewing that could turn into some kind of legal action against Trump, this is probably the weakest case. I think it’s very…
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