This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since the latter invaded Ukraine last year. Xi arrived in Russia Monday for a three-day meeting in Moscow, in which the two are poised to discuss next steps related to the war as well as how they can continue to grow other areas of a “comprehensive partnership” more broadly.
The two leaders are coming into this meeting with slightly different needs. Russia, increasingly isolated diplomatically and in the midst of a major effort on several fronts of the invasion, is likely using this chance to once again push for military support from China and underscore the relationship it still has with a major world power.
China, meanwhile, is focused on maintaining its economic and strategic ties with Russia, without alienating countries in Europe and Africa. As a result, China has stopped short of offering Russia lethal aid and is likely to continue doing so. For China, this meeting is also a chance to burnish its diplomatic credentials, something it signaled in its purported advocacy for “peace talks.”
Given their differing aims, this meeting probably won’t result in concrete military commitments so much as posturing by China and discussions of the two countries’ trade relationship.
“I think it’s still relatively unlikely we’ll get any major announcements on the war in Ukraine from this summit, or on Chinese military aid to Russia,” says Emma Ashford, a fellow at the Atlantic Council. “Instead, I’d expect any announcements to focus on China’s priorities: locking in favorable rates for Russian gas exports, etc.”
What Russia wants
Russia has pushed for Chinese military support in the past and could well use this meeting to continue making its case. According to a February CNN report, US intelligence believes that China has been weighing whether to provide drones and ammunition to Russia.
China changing its position on military aid would…
Read the full article here
