Conservatives across the nation are in the Washington, DC, area this weekend for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference.
Some potential 2024 Republican presidential contenders – such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – have been noticeably absent. But former President Donald Trump will speak at the conference Saturday, and he comes in on a wave of momentum in the polls.
Trump is a clear, though not prohibitive, favorite to win next year’s Republican nomination for president. Right now, he’s averaging about 44% in the national primary polls. He’s 15 points ahead of DeSantis who is at 29%.
A 15-point lead may not seem impressive at this early stage of the primary campaign, but it’s notable for two reasons.
The first is that most candidates in Trump’s position right now have gone on to win their primary. Take a look at all the candidates who were averaging at least 35% in past national primary polls in the first half of the year prior to the primary (e.g., January to June of 2019 for the 2020 primary).
Since 1972, about 75% of these candidates have gone on to win the nomination when they faced at least one major challenger. Those polling between 35% and 50% at this stage of the primary campaign have won about 67% of the time.
It would be easy to dismiss Trump’s numbers as merely the product of high name recognition, but history suggests something different. The eventual nominees from this group include, among others, President Gerald Ford for 1976, Vice President George H.W. Bush for 1988 and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole for 1996.
It turns out that name recognition is important to winning nominations and will likely be a strength for Trump, not a weakness.
In other words, Trump’s current standing in the polls is statistically relevant, even though it is early.
Candidates…
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