ATLANTA — Clayton County’s population is forecast to reach 348,000 by 2050, an increase of 50,400 over the 2020 U.S. Census baseline, according to population and employment forecasts recently released last week by the Atlanta Regional Commission.
Clayton is forecast to grow by 17% by 2050, compared to the regional average of 30%.
The population growth will be driven by the economy. ARC forecasts that metro Atlanta will add 856,000 jobs by 2050, for a total of 4.6 million.
ARC issues long-range population and employment forecasts about every four years to inform the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP), the region’s long-range blueprint that shapes transportation investments in metro Atlanta.
The ARC board recently adopted a major update to the MTP, which allocates $168 billion through 2050 for transportation projects across the Atlanta region, including Clayton.
Highlights of the regional population and employment forecasts include:
♦ Diversity will drive the region’s growth. Virtually all the net growth will come from racial and ethnic minority groups. For example, Hispanic and Latino residents are forecast to account for 21% of the region’s population in 2050, compared to 12% today.
♦ The region’s population of older adults will grow at a fast rate. In 2050, nearly 12% of the region’s population, or more than 900,000 people, will be aged 75 or older. That compares to a share of less than 5% today.
♦ Growth will remain strong, but slower than previously forecast.
The new 2050 population forecast is about 700,000 below what was forecast in the previous series adopted in 2020. Driving the slower growth are declining fertility rates and a drop in “in-migration” — that is, people moving to metro Atlanta from other parts of the country or from abroad. Both of these trends accelerated during the Covid-19 pandemic.
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