The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council improved to 53 in Q1 2024, up from 46 in the fourth quarter of 2023. The Measure is now above 50, a reading that suggests CEOs have become optimistic about what’s ahead for the economy. Importantly, this is the first time optimism has prevailed in the Measure since Q1 2022. (A reading above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses.) A total of 138 CEOs participated in the Q1 survey, which was fielded from January 16 through 29.
CEOs’ views of current economic conditions improved markedly. In the Q1 survey, 32% of CEOs reported general economic conditions to be better than they were six months ago, up from just 18% in Q4 of last year. Just 22% said conditions were worse, down from 32% in Q4. Similarly, future expectations strengthened: 36% of CEOs in Q1 expect general economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 19% last quarter. Moreover, only 27% expect conditions to worsen, down significantly from 47%. CEO expectations for conditions in their own industry followed a similar upward trend.
“CEOs are feeling better about the economy, but remain cautious about risks ahead,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Trustee of The Conference Board. “In supplemental questions asked this quarter, CEOs overwhelmingly identified political uncertainty ahead of US elections (51%) as the greatest US challenge affecting businesses in 2024. Meanwhile, CEOs said the greatest global challenge affecting businesses this year is the spread of existing wars (46%). Deglobalization (19%) and US-China tensions (15%) were also concerns. On the positive side, CEOs cited reduced inflation (34%) and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (28%) as top US developments that might benefit businesses.”
“The significant labor hoarding that occurred over much of 2023 showed some sign of letting up in Q1 2024,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief…
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