It won’t suck up anywhere near the oxygen of the presidential election, but the race for the US House of Representatives may be the most exciting campaign to watch in 2024.
The White House contest looks destined for a rematch that most Americans are dreading. Control of the US Senate will likely come down to whether red-state Democrats can defy the partisan tilt of their states and defend their party’s majority. Republicans need to flip one or two seats – depending on who wins the White House – to control the chamber, and they’re already poised to pick up retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat in deep-red West Virginia.
But in the House, Republicans’ shrinking majority has underscored the importance of the balance of power in Washington. House Republicans currently control 219 seats to Democrats’ 212, with four vacancies. Recent dysfunction in Congress – from last year’s speakership chaos to stymied border and foreign aid packages – has illustrated the challenges of ruling with a narrow majority.
Democrats need a net gain of five seats to win control of the House – which could shrink to four if they pick up George Santos’ vacant New York seat in Tuesday’s special election. Santos was expelled from the House last year, but he’s not absent from the race. Democrats are using the disgraced former lawmaker in their advertising to try to attack the GOP nominee for the open seat. The outcome of that special election, in a suburban district that President Joe Biden would have carried in 2020, will be closely watched for clues about how this fall’s elections could shake out – especially in the all-important Empire State.
Why New York and California are the hot spots
New York and California will be the epicenter of the 2024 House campaign, with both states collectively hosting the biggest…
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