Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tussling over the union vote.
Biden, who is meeting with the United Auto Workers in Michigan on Thursday, finds himself trying to fend off Trump’s overtures to a traditionally Democratic constituency. Trump is meeting up with the Teamsters in Washington on Wednesday.
Trump’s efforts seem to be paying off, polling data shows, as Biden fights against the long-term trends of union members shifting away from Democrats.
Take a look at recent New York Times/Siena College polling in the six closest swing states that Biden won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden and Trump were tied at 47% among union members when asked who they’d vote for in 2024. When these swing state voters were asked how they voted in 2020, Biden won the group by an 8-point margin.
The union vote is especially important in Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Somewhere between 14% and 15% of employees in these three states are represented by unions. (Between 12% and 13% of employees in these states are themselves union members.)
The latest polling may be a surprise given that union workers are generally thought of as a strong Democratic group. It shouldn’t be.
Biden won union workers – who reside primarily in blue states – by 22 points, according to the 2020 Cooperative Election Study survey by Harvard University. Compare that with Bill Clinton’s performance in 1992, when he won the national popular vote by a similar margin to Biden 28 years later. But Clinton won union members by 31 points, according to an American National Election Studies survey.
We’re a far cry from 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman won union workers by 62 points over Republican Thomas…
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