On Tuesday, Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Republican primary, confirming what has been obvious for months now: The 2024 election will once again be Trump vs. Joe Biden.
Between now and November, Americans will be inundated with political coverage of the two candidates. Every utterance, poll number and economic indicator will be pored over. To help you separate the myths from the facts, here’s a quick guide to the next nine months of political news.
Myth: Everything matters
Fact: (Virtually) nothing matters
Political journalists — and political junkies — love to interpret nearly every event that happens on the campaign trail for its larger political significance. Will it move the polls? Will it sway undecided voters? And so forth. The reality is that not only are few Americans paying attention to political news, but the overwhelming majority of them already know how they will vote in November.
While polls nine months out from Election Day offer a snapshot of the electorate’s mood, they are rarely useful predictors.
Historically, the best indicator of the way someone will vote in the future is how they voted in the past. Registered Democrats vote for Democrats, registered Republicans vote for Republicans, and independents are generally more partisan than their nonaffiliation would suggest, leaning toward one party.
While partisan identity has always been a huge factor in American politics, as political polarization has intensified, it’s become far more pronounced.
Indeed, I asked several public opinion experts for their estimation of what percentage of voters have already made up their minds on whom they will support in November. The answer from all of them was the same: 90%.
According to G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight, based on his forecasting work, only “about 5% of voters these days switch between Republicans and Democrats at the presidential level.” He estimates that in the 1970s, the number was closer to 25%.
This is…
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