The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.
“The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in December 2023 to 111.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November. The CEI expanded by 1.1 percent over the second half of 2023, up from its 0.8 percent growth rate over the first half of 2023. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index were positive in December, with personal income less transfer payments continuing to be the strongest contributor, followed by much smaller positive contributions from the remaining three components.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in December 2023 to 118.4 (2016 =…
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