Small and midsize business (SMB) CEO confidence sustained its upward trajectory in Q4 2023, marking the fifth increase in six quarters, per the latest CEO Confidence Index from CEO coaching and peer advisory organization Vistage.
A growing proportion of CEOs are projecting increased revenues and profits. Although economic confidence remains historically low, CEOs have an increasing level of economic optimism. Meanwhile, talent persists as CEOs’ foremost challenge; entering the new year hiring plans have increased compared to the previous quarter.
Vistage has measured SMB CEOs’ sentiment on a variety of economic and business factors each quarter since 2003. ITR Economics’ rate-of-change methodology has revealed the Vistage CEO Confidence Index is a leading indicator of the U.S. Industrial Production Index nine months in advance. In Q4 2023, the Vistage CEO Confidence Index rose to 82—trending upward from 76 in Q3 2023, 74.2 in Q2 2023, and 72.6 in Q1 2023.
“CEOs, eager for growth akin to passengers awaiting takeoff, saw a slight uptick in confidence in Q4 2023,” said Joe Galvin, Vistage’s chief research officer. “While unemployment stays low and 56% of leaders plan to expand their workforce in 2024, hiring and retaining talent remain top challenges. CEOs anticipate a talent surge when workforce velocity accelerates, emphasizing the need to fill every ‘seat’ in their business ‘plane’ to avoid stalling in a growth holding pattern.”
ITR Economics Vice President of Economics Jackie Greene added, “Despite increased CEO optimism, a growing GDP and steady interest rates, ITR forecasts a short recession in 2024 with an economic rise following in 2025. CEOs will need to consider their hiring needs in that context, hone in on their competitive advantages, and focus on managing their finances.”
Q4 2023 Vistage CEO Confidence Index…
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