The China playbook is changing, after decades of rapid growth. Whether the country is headed toward an extreme of Japan-style stagnation remains to be seen. China’s attempt to transition to what Beijing calls high-quality growth will take time to play out. Goldman Sachs calls the China story today one of “rebalancing,” and has picked 40 buy-rated stocks to play the theme. “One key takeaway from the past year is that there are ways to make money even in a sustained bear market, akin to the experiences from Japan’s lost decades,” Goldman’s Chief China Equity Strategist Kinger Lau and a team wrote in a Jan. 9 report. They predict certain consumer names, artificial intelligence companies and rising global players will be among the Chinese stocks that can do well. China equities have yet to shake off the doldrums of 2023. The mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stock indexes are all down for the year so far. “People often aspire for positive changes at the start of the year. However, the sentiment of investors and policy advisors attending our China New Economy Summit in Beijing last week remained weak,” Morgan Stanley’s Chief China Economist Robin Xing said in a Jan. 11 report. “What is the way out? Swifter shift to active fiscal easing and economic rebalancing towards consumption,” the report said. December data and fourth-quarter GDP due out late Tuesday New York time may give more clues on China’s economic trajectory — and whether policymakers need to act. Goldman predicts China grew by 5.3% last year, and forecasts a slowdown to 4.8% this year. “While underperforming global equities in 2023, MSCI China has recorded three +10% tradable rallies during the year,” Lau wrote in a separate report earlier this month, noting the gains typically centered on policy expectations. The report also pointed out that both mutual and hedge fund mandates globally are running multi-year low allocations to Chinese stocks. Against such uncertainty, China’s top officials are stepping up…
Read the full article here