American democracy is at stake in 2024 — and so is the fate of the Earth. Time is quickly running out on cutting greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to avert catastrophic climate change. If a Republican such as Donald Trump wins the presidency, the loss of American leadership on climate change in the crucial second half of this decade would ensure that the world blows past the threshold of calamity.
Last year was the hottest on record, filled with devastating climate change-related extreme weather events such as deadly heat waves, droughts and flash floods from an increasingly disrupted water cycle. Global average temperatures have increased 1.2℃ (2.2℉) since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. That is perilously close to the 1.5℃ (2.7℉) that scientists say would start world-altering feedback loops: the disappearance of heat-reflecting Arctic sea ice, for example, would cause more warming by bringing heat-absorbing water to the surface.
Meeting the IPCC’s timeline will require steep emissions cuts from the U.S. and other large economies.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that staying below 1.5℃ of warming requires global greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by 43% by 2030, 60% by 2035 and reach net-zero by 2050. But emissions have kept rising in recent years, albeit at a slower pace. Meeting the IPCC’s timeline will require steep emissions cuts from the U.S. and other large economies, and more generous grants and loans for clean energy deployment from rich countries to poor ones.
None of this will be possible with a Republican in the White House. The Trump White House set back progress on fighting climate change both in terms of U.S. emissions and international relations. Trump withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, the landmark deal to try to avert catastrophic climate change by staying below 2℃ (3.6℉) of warming, and ideally to stay under 1.5℃. His administration reversed or weakened many environmental…
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