Tuesday’s ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that former President Donald Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency under the U.S. Constitution’s insurrection clause immediately turned the legal and political world upside down. Legal commentators went into overdrive explaining what the decision meant, and political analysts began to read the political tea leaves.
It is very likely that the Supreme Court will take up Trump’s appeal. As a result, those focusing on the law have days, weeks or even months to consider the legal arguments, which will not be settled until the ruling (and probably not even then). But political operatives of both parties don’t have the luxury of waiting. They immediately need to prepare not only for every possible ruling from the Supreme Court, but also for the fallout in the meantime leading up to the nine justices’ ruling.
So it isn’t so much that the Colorado ruling is good for Trump; it just doesn’t hurt him.
The major question among political pundits is: Which candidate are these decisions good for? Overwhelmingly, the knee-jerk answer has been Trump. The argument goes that this will rally his followers and harden their support for Trump in the primary and general election.
That argument is half-right. After all, Trump’s support among his followers hasn’t fallen off and has even grown despite the announcement of four criminal indictments with 91 separate charges. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll even shows Trump beating President Biden 46% to 44% among registered voters (though that 2% gap is within the margin of error). But as we have seen time and again, the voters that supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 are unmovable. So it isn’t so much that the Colorado ruling is good for Trump; it just doesn’t hurt him.
Biden on the other hand, appears to be losing ground among his core supports, including Hispanic, Black and young Americans. To be clear, though, there is no way that, come Election Day,…
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