Global new light vehicle sales in 2024 will see a 2.8% increase year-over-year, according to a new forecast by S&P Global Mobility. The light vehicle output recovery continues to feed inventory restocking efforts across many regions, as supply chain and demand is further recovering, supported by lingering pent-up consumer demand. S&P Global Mobility remains wary on recovery prospects, however, with consumer demand challenged by elevated vehicle pricing alongside challenging credit and lending conditions.
The forecast outlook incorporates stickier interest rates, improving supply chains, the affordability squeeze, lofty new vehicle prices, patchy consumer confidence, energy price/supply concerns, auto lending risks, and ongoing electrification growing pains.
“2024 is expected to be another year of cagey recovery, with the auto industry moving beyond clear supply-side risks, into a murkier macro-led demand environment,” said Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “A major concern is how ‘natural’ EV demand will fare as governments consider scaling back interventionist policy support – especially for incentives and subsidies, industrial policy, and OEM planning targets.”
Full-year 2023 global light vehicle sales – projected to reach nearly 86.0 million units by S&P Global Mobility – represent a 8.9% increase from 2022 levels, with new auto demand benefiting from ongoing output gains from restocking inventories as supply chains normalize.
Market-by-market forecasts
Europe: Wrapping up 2023, solid Western/Central European market momentum should deliver 14.7 million units (+12.8% y/y), as improved vehicle production levels help delivery times and inventory recovery. For 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts 15.1 million units, up by 2.9% y/y – reflecting economic recession risks, tighter credit conditions, easing pent-up demand, still-high car prices, and tapering EV subsidies.
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