The evidence that President Joe Biden has a problem with young voters just got stronger. A new poll from the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School shows that young people are significantly less inclined to vote in the 2024 election than they were at roughly this point ahead of the 2020 election.
In the Institute of Politics poll, which was conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 6, just 49% of 18- to 29-year-olds across the political spectrum said they “definitely” planned to vote next year. That’s a marked drop from the fall of 2019, when 57% said they “definitely” planned to vote. That drop is far more pronounced among Republicans (who fell from 66% to 56%) than Democrats (who fell from 68% to 66%). But the plurality of 18- to 29-year-olds are independents, and their commitment to “definitely” voting dropped from 41% to 31%. That’s more likely to hurt Democrats, as young independents tend to vote more Democratic. And the trend was especially pronounced among racial minority groups who skew Democratic: Young Black Americans dropped from 50% to 38% from 2019 to 2023, and young Hispanic Americans fell from 56% to 40%.
Young voters were crucial to Democrats’ victories in 2020 and 2022.
In a hypothetical match-up against Donald Trump in the poll, Biden leads by 11 points among young Americans, 41%-30%. (Thirteen percent of respondents say they are undecided, and an additional 15% say they wouldn’t vote.) But when potential independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Joe Manchin and Cornel West are added to the offerings, Biden’s lead is reduced to just 4 points.
Polling a year out from the election should be taken with many grains of salt. These numbers aren’t predictive of the vote; they’re only a snapshot in time. Any number of factors could drive up interest in voting overall, or Biden’s numbers specifically, between now and Election Day. But the numbers certainly aren’t promising for the Democrats. Young voters were crucial to…
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